Trivia Question
What is the average annual rainfall for Boise? Snowfall? (Scroll down for the answer.) Susan Livingston, REALTOR©
(208) 841-3338
susan@idrelo.com
www.idrelo.com
Smith and Coelho Real Estate
(208) 955-1700
1151 E. Iron Eagle Drive
Eagle, ID 83616
www.smithandcoelho.com
(Answer: 12 & 21 inches)
Below is a chart that I have created to illustrate the state of the local real estate market and how it has been changing month to month. I update it monthly when the MLS releases its monthly statistics. If you would like the “executive summary,” focus on the red line. It represents how the inventory level is changing from month to month. The higher the red line is, the more inventory there is, and the more it is a buyer’s market. The lower it is, the more it is a seller’s market. To study this chart in more detail or to print it, I’d recommend using the PDF version of this chart. If you would like to see more detailed market statistics, you can check out the MLS monthly statistics that this chart is based on.
What happened in October?
The number of Availables increased slightly from 3403 in September to 3236 in October, while the Solds increased, from 546 to 585. This lowered the overall inventory level from 6.2 to 5.5 months. All year long we have been in a steady and rather steep move to a balanced market. In fact, this chart would indicate that we are in a balanced market, only very slightly biased towards a sellers’ market.
So why doesn’t it feel like a balanced or sellers’ market? Why does it continue to feel like a tough market for sellers? The big reason is of course that prices are way down, due largely to short sales (pre-foreclosure properties) and REO’s (bank-owned foreclosed properties). From January to October the median price in Ada county decreased from $183,000 to $155,000, and the average price decreased from $210,928 to $180,167. I have started maintaining a pricing chart that shows the history back into ‘07. It’s the second chart on this page.
Another big factor big factor as far as why the market doesn’t feel particularly balanced is that it’s primarily the lower end of the market that is experiencing the more “balanced” numbers. If we break up the inventory levels up by price range, we get something like this:
<$100K: 6.4 months
$100-$199K: 6.6 months
$200-$299K: 8.8 months
$300-$449K: 10.3 months
$450+: 18.5 months
So you can see that the “balanced” market numbers (that is, inventory numbers around 6 months) are primarily limited to properties around or under $200,000. To save me some time in coming up with these numbers, I used data from Hennessy Appraisals. I received a fabulous and quite detailed market report from them for October. (If you’d like a copy, just email me and I’ll be happy to send a copy your way.) You may notice that market inventory numbers look higher than mine. That’s because there are different ways of calculating that, and they choose a slightly different method. (I only use 1 month’s worth of solds while they use 3.)
Some other interesting data from Hennessy Appraisals indicates that in October in Ada County, 30% of all sales were distressed sales, that is, short sales or REO’s. On the bright side, that’s actually down from a high of 43% in April. Things are significantly worse in Canyon County, as their distressed sales accounted for 60% of all sales in October.
So, without further ado, here are my charts for October 2009:
CLICK HERE TO VIEW A LARGER & PRINTABLE PDF VERSION OF THIS CHART
CLICK HERE TO VIEW A LARGER & PRINTABLE PDF VERSION OF THIS CHART
What happened in October?
The number of Availables increased slightly from 3403 in September to 3236 in October, while the Solds increased, from 546 to 585. This lowered the overall inventory level from 6.2 to 5.5 months. All year long we have been in a steady and rather steep move to a balanced market. In fact, this chart would indicate that we are in a balanced market, only very slightly biased towards a sellers’ market.
So why doesn’t it feel like a balanced or sellers’ market? Why does it continue to feel like a tough market for sellers? The big reason is of course that prices are way down, due largely to short sales (pre-foreclosure properties) and REO’s (bank-owned foreclosed properties). From January to October the median price in Ada county decreased from $183,000 to $155,000, and the average price decreased from $210,928 to $180,167. I have started maintaining a pricing chart that shows the history back into ‘07. It’s the second chart on this page.
Another big factor big factor as far as why the market doesn’t feel particularly balanced is that it’s primarily the lower end of the market that is experiencing the more “balanced” numbers. If we break up the inventory levels up by price range, we get something like this:
<$100K: 6.4 months
$100-$199K: 6.6 months
$200-$299K: 8.8 months
$300-$449K: 10.3 months
$450+: 18.5 months
So you can see that the “balanced” market numbers (that is, inventory numbers around 6 months) are primarily limited to properties around or under $200,000. To save me some time in coming up with these numbers, I used data from Hennessy Appraisals. I received a fabulous and quite detailed market report from them for October. (If you’d like a copy, just email me and I’ll be happy to send a copy your way.) You may notice that market inventory numbers look higher than mine. That’s because there are different ways of calculating that, and they choose a slightly different method. (I only use 1 month’s worth of solds while they use 3.)
Some other interesting data from Hennessy Appraisals indicates that in October in Ada County, 30% of all sales were distressed sales, that is, short sales or REO’s. On the bright side, that’s actually down from a high of 43% in April. Things are significantly worse in Canyon County, as their distressed sales accounted for 60% of all sales in October.
So, without further ado, here are my charts for October 2009:
CLICK HERE TO VIEW A LARGER & PRINTABLE PDF VERSION OF THIS CHART
CLICK HERE TO VIEW A LARGER & PRINTABLE PDF VERSION OF THIS CHART